Understanding the Agriculture sector
Funding to the Agriculture sector is forecast to be between $100m and $251m in 2023. Our central estimate is $149m. For reference, the sector received $71m in 2022.
This forecast is based on our 95% probability range. In other words, we are 95% sure that funding will be between $100m and $251m. Below are the other forecast ranges for the Agriculture sector. As we become less sure about our forecast, the range narrows. So for example, we think there’s a 50% probability that funding will be between $125m and $179m.
But we need to put this into context. What does the forecast mean in terms of reaching the funding that is required for the sector (also known as the funding requirement)? The total funding requirement globally is determined by how much is needed in each context. If you hover over the donut below you’ll be able to see the chances of reaching 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of the funding that is required.
As the donut shows, we think it’s likely that the Agriculture sector will receive 50% of the funding that is required, but highly unlikely to get 75% of the funding requirement. As a reference point, the Agriculture sector received only 36% of the funding required last year.
How does the 2023 forecast compare to previous years?
Funding to the sector has been on a trajectory of steady recovery. In 2017, the sector received $221m, before falling to $49m in 2018. The sector went through a few years of very low amounts of funding, before bouncing back in 2022 with $71m.
Because of this volatility, our forecast has quite a wide range. Our forecast puts the Agriculture sector somewhere between 36% and 90% of the funding required in 2023.
The amount of funding required for Agriculture has increased year-on-year since 2020, and now stands at $279m. Compare that to 2020 when the funding required was around $74m.
We’ve come up with a way of looking at whether funding required is increasing faster than the funding received. In this story, we’ve defined a real humanitarian recession as an increasing funding gap for two consecutive years. Agriculture has closed its funding gap in 2022. Will this continue in 2023?
We think it is almost certain that there will be real growth (closing the funding gap) this year, particularly considering that Agriculture has alread received more than the previous five years, and the year hasn’t ended yet.
How does the 2023 forecast compare to other sectors?
Agriculture is set to be ranked as the 15th most funded sector in 2023. It should also be said that there are other sectors which are not included here because we are not making forecasts for them. This includes Housing Land and Property.
The current state of things
Three-quarters through the calendar year of 2023, and Agriculture has received $72m so far. This is a significant jump in funding, and Agriculture has already surpassed the total received last year, and we are still a while from the end of the year.
By the end of 2022, Agriculture had posted its best year in the last five, receiving $71m. This is more than double the $34m that the sector received in 2021, which was itself also better than the two previous years.
The rapid decline in Agriculture specific funding in recent years had resulted in the sector settling at a new equilibrium: somewhere between $20m and $40m. However, the new high of $78m could signal a shift in this decline. Bear in mind, however, that the sector received $221m in 2017, so we’re still nowhere near those heady heights.
Features of the Agriculture sector in 2022
There is one big player when it comes to Agriculture funding, the Government of the United States, which represents 88% of all funding. This is followed by the Government of Zimbabwe (3%), and the Government of Germany (2%).
Unsurprisingly, the UN agency with the word ‘Agriculture’ in its name, the Food and Agriculture Organisation receives the most Agriculture funding – 72% to be price. This is followed by CARE (5%) and Mercy Corps (4%).
The usual health warning: FTS doesn’t capture everything. It is a platform that relies on voluntary reporting by organisations. But it is the most comprehensive source of data for humanitarian funding.
To find out methodology and sources for all the bits and bobs on this page, click here. The first three graphs on the page examine all Agriculture funding (not just funding to response plans).
Note: Numbers in ‘The current state of things’ graph may differ from elsewhere on the page as the data was extracted on a different date (8th July 2023) than other numbers that also show how much was received (i.e. the column chart).