For more details on Methodology click here. For more details on terminology click here.
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Last Updated 4th February 2025.
Early Recovery refers to “an approach that addresses recovery needs that arise during the humanitarian phase of an emergency; using humanitarian mechanisms that align with development principles. It enables people to use the benefits of humanitarian action to seize development opportunities, build resilience, and establish a sustainable process of recovery from crisis“. The Early Recovery Cluster was led by UNDP, as seen in this diagram, and Early Recovery Clusters and Sectors existed, and still do, in a number of contexts.
However, an Evaluation of the Global Early Recovery Sector in 2018 noted the declining relevance of the sector. The evaluation notes that “the concept of Early Recovery and the legitimacy of a dedicated Early Recovery Cluster have not taken hold. Despite significant efforts by the [Global Cluster for Early Recovery – GCER] over more than a decade, the concept of Early Recovery is still not clear to many stakeholders and the humanitarian community at the country level has not accepted it fully”. The Early Recovery sector has also struggled from the issue of interpretation. What is an ‘Early Recovery’ activity and what is not? As a 2010 ODI report noted, everything from income generating activities in the Agriculture sector, to building education infrastructure, to road rehabilitation in Logistics could be seen as Early Recovery. In addition, at the time of writing, there is no GCER website anymore (an archived version can be found here).
Everything on this page regarding the funding trends of Early Recovery needs to be seen in the context of this declining visibility of the sector.
How much funding is the Early Recovery sector forecast to receive in 2025?
Funding to the Early Recovery sector is forecast to be between $205m and $532m in 2025. Our central estimate is $331m. For reference, the Early Recovery sector received $318m last year.
This forecast is based on our 95% probability range. In other words, we are 95% sure that funding will be in this range. Below are the other forecast ranges for the Early Recovery sector. As we become less sure about our forecast, the range narrows. So for example, we think there’s a 50% probability that funding will be between $281m and $388m.
But we need to put this into context. What does the forecast mean in terms of reaching the funding that is required for the sector (also known as the funding requirement)? The total funding requirement globally is determined by how much is needed in each context. If you hover over the donut below you’ll be able to see the chances of reaching 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of the funding that is required.
We think that it’s unlikely that the sector will receive 50% of what is required, let alone more.
How does the 2025 forecast compare to previous years?
Unsurprisingly, given the preamble, the funding required for Early Recovery had declined since 2016 – that is until 2021 and 2022. In 2016, the funding requirement for Early Recovery was $827m. Four years later, and the funding requirement had declined to $489m in 2020. The trend, however, reversed to $2.1bn in 2023. This is a huge jump given the funding requirements in recent years. However, in the age of prioritisation, funding requirements have been reigned in since.
In tandem with the trend in the funding requirement in recent years, funding received to the sector has also declined then bounced back. Funding declined by over a half across the last six years, from $233m in 2016, to $142m in 2021, before climbing to $435m in 2023.
Our forecast is that Early Recovery will receive somewhere between 26% and 68% of the projected funding requirement. Our central estimate of $331m would be roughly in line with what was received last year.
In this story, we’ve defined a real humanitarian recession as two consecutive years of a growing funding gap. And with one year of a growing funding gap, this opens up the possibility of a recession in 2025.
The good news, however, is that we think that it’s almost certain that the Early Recovery sector will experience ‘real growth’ this year – that means funding received growing faster than the funding requirement.
How does the 2025 forecast compare to other sectors?
Our central estimate of $331m for Early Recovery puts the sector in 12th place. This is outside the top half of the table where sectors tend to receive $800m+ and have funding requirements of $2bn+.
Methodology
The usual health warning: FTS doesn’t capture everything. It is a platform that relies on voluntary reporting by organisations. But it is the most comprehensive source of data for humanitarian funding.
For forecast methodology, click here. We’ll be keeping a record of all our forecasts and success over time, which you can find here.
To find out methodology and sources for other things on this page which aren’t the forecast, click here.