For more details on Methodology click here. For more details on terminology click here.
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Last Updated 4th February 2025.
How much funding is the Education Sector forecast to receive in 2025?
Funding to the Education sector forecast to be between $580m and $1421m in 2025. Our central estimate is $902m. For reference, the Education sector received $774m last year.
This forecast is based on our 95% probability range. In other words, we are 95% sure that funding will be between $580m and $1421m. Below are the other forecast ranges for the Education sector. As we become less sure about our forecast, the range narrows. So for example, we think there’s a 50% probability that funding will be between $776mand $1054m.
But we need to put this into context. What does the forecast mean in terms of reaching the funding that is required for the sector (also known as the funding requirement)? The total funding requirement globally is determined by how much is needed in each context. If you hover over the donut below you’ll be able to see the chances of reaching 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of the funding that is required.
We think that it’s almost certain that Education will receive at least 25% of their funding requirement. Reaching this milestone has been the norm for the sector, with the only blip coming in 2021 when the sector received 19% of the requirement.
How does the 2025 forecast compare to previous years?
The forecast has Education receiving 25% to 61% of the funding requirement and the current central estimate of $902m would surpass 2024 levels of funding.
Since 2018, funding has increased from $434m to $773m in 2024. Whilst this is a substantial increase, the sector actually peaked in 2023 when it received $1.1bn. At the same time, the funding requirement also peaked in 2023 when the sector asked for $3.7bn. The substantial decline in funding requirement since 2023 perhaps reflects broader efforts of prioritisation in the sector.
In this story, we’ve defined a real humanitarian recession as two consecutive years of a growing funding gap. And with two years of a growing funding gap already, this opens up the possibility of staying in recession in 2025.
However, we think that it’s almost certain that the Education sector will experience real growth this year (i.e. close the funding gap).
How does the 2025 forecast compare to other sectors?
Education is on course to rank as the 7th highest sector for funding received, completing the set of ‘top 7 sectors’ that tend to have high funding requirements, and funding received nearing or over $1bn.
Methodology
The usual health warning: FTS doesn’t capture everything. It is a platform that relies on voluntary reporting by organisations. But it is the most comprehensive source of data for humanitarian funding.
For forecast methodology, click here. We’ll be keeping a record of all our forecasts and success over time, which you can find here.
To find out methodology and sources for other things on this page which aren’t the forecast, click here.