Food Security

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Last Updated 9th February 2025.

Note: The funding requirement listed below is currently a projected funding requirement which is subject to change.

How much funding is the Food Security sector forecast to receive in 2025?

Funding to the Food Security sector is forecast to be between $5.1bn and $13.2bn in 2025. For reference, the sector received $7.4bn last year.

This forecast is based on our 95% probability range. In other words, we are 95% sure that funding will be between $5.1bn and $13.2bn. Below are the other forecast ranges for the Food Security sector. As we become less sure about our forecast, the range narrows. So for example, we think there’s a 50% probability that funding will be between $6.9bn and $9.5bn.

But we need to put this into context. What does the forecast mean in terms of reaching the funding that is required for the sector (also known as the funding requirement)? The total funding requirement globally is determined by how much is needed in each context. If you hover over the donut below you’ll be able to see the chances of reaching 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of the funding that is required.

As the most well funded sector in absolute terms, Food Security is almost certain to reach 25% of its funding requirement, and likely to reach 50% of what is required. However, there’s only a remote chance of reaching 75% of the funding requirement.

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How does the 2025 forecast compare to previous years?

Our forecast for 2025 is that Food Security will receive 33% to 85% of the funding requirement – this is quite a wide range, but is due to the uncertainty in the forecast as the year has just begun.

Funding to the sector gradually rose over time, before falling in the past two years. In 2018, the Food Security sector received $4.6bn, which rose to $11.9bn by 2022, before declining to $7.4bn in 2024.

The amount of funding required for Food Security has also followed a similar trajectory. The funding requirement peaked in 2023 at over $21bn, but then dropped off in 2024 to $17bn.

The funding gap, however, closed in 2024 in both absolute terms and percentage terms. Whilst this is welcome, the funding gap in 2024 still stood at over $9bn, a monumental amount.

However, we need to put this graph into context. If there’s one thing you should know about the Food Security sector, it’s that it’s the largest sector of all, by some margin. In terms of the amount of funding that is required to meet humanitarian needs, it’s the largest. In terms of the amount of funding received, it’s the largest.

Food Security closed the funding gap in 2024, and so there’s no risk that Food Security will go into a humanitarian recession. We’ve come up with a way of defining what a ‘real humanitarian recession’ is, and we’ve defined it in this story as two consecutive years of a growing funding gap. So what is expected to happen in 2025?

We think it’s likely that Food Security will close the funding gap this year. In other words, it will experience another year of a closing funding gap.

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How does the 2025 forecast compare to other sectors?

Given the sheer scale of the Food Security sector, we think that it’s almost certain that it will rank 1st out of all humanitarian sectors in 2025 (and likely 2026, 2027, and so on).

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