For more details on Methodology click here. For more details on terminology click here.
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Last Updated 9th February 2025.
Note: The funding requirement listed below is currently a projected funding requirement which is subject to change.
A quick caveat before going further: Protection here does not include other Protection domains. In addition to ‘General Protection’, there are another four related domains of Protection: Child Protection, Gender Based Violence, Housing Land and Property, and Mine Action. Three of these four have their own pages on this site. To find out more about these, please go to those individual pages. These different domains are called ‘Areas of Responsibility’. The funding analysed on this page is basically everything else that is not one of the four things above.
How much funding is the Protection sector forecast to receive in 2025?
Funding to the Protection sector is forecast to be between $702m and $1768m in 2025. Our central estimate is $1115m. For reference, the Protection sector received $1065m in total last year.
This forecast is based on our 95% probability range. In other words, we are 95% sure that funding will be between $0.7bn and $1.8bn. Below are the other forecast ranges for the Protection sector. As we become less sure about our forecast, the range narrows. So for example, we think there’s a 50% probability that funding will be between $0.9bn and $1.3bn.
But we need to put this into context. What does the forecast mean in terms of reaching the funding that is required for the sector (also known as the funding requirement)? The total funding requirement globally is determined by how much is needed in each context. If you hover over the donut below you’ll be able to see the chances of reaching 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of the funding that is required.
We think that it is almost certain that Logistics will reach 25% of the requirement in 2025, and highly likely of reaching the next milestone of 50%.
How does the 2025 forecast compare to previous years?
The funding requirement for the Protection sector has increased significantly over the past seven years – from less than $1bn in 2018, to $3.3bn in 2023. This tailed off slightly in 2024 to $2.6bn in 2024, and it is still unknown exactly where the funding requirement will land in 2025.
Funding increased across the period from $345m in 2018, to $1.1bn in 2024. But how does this relate to need? The funding gap stood at 60% in 2024. This is quite concerning when we think about the Centrality of Protection in Humanitarian Action. A 68% funding gap means that many affected populations are not receiving needed services. Lots of humanitarian crises are protection crises. The high funding gap raises the question: to what extent is Protection actually at the centre of humanitarian action?
We’ve come up with a way of defining what a ‘real humanitarian recession’ is, and we’ve defined it in this story as two consecutive years of a growing funding gap. With one year of a growing funding gap already, what is the outlook for 2025?
We think that it is almost certain that the sector will experience real growth in 2025 and close the funding gap.
How does the 2025 forecast compare to other sectors?
The Protection sector is forecast to rank 6th of all humanitarian sectors in terms of funding received, sandwiched between Shelter/NFI and Education. This places Protection firmly in the ‘top-half’ of sectors, which tend to have $2bn+ funding requirements.
Methodology
The usual health warning: FTS doesn’t capture everything. It is a platform that relies on voluntary reporting by organisations. But it is the most comprehensive source of data for humanitarian funding.
For forecast methodology, click here. We’ll be keeping a record of all our forecasts and success over time, which you can find here.
To find out methodology and sources for other things on this page which aren’t the forecast, click here.