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Last Updated 4th February 2025.
How much funding is the Emergency Shelter and Non Food Items (NFI) Sector forecast to receive in 2025?
Funding to the Emergency Shelter and NFI sector is forecast to be between $765m and $1.9bn in 2025. Our central estimate is $1.2bn. For reference, the Emergency Shelter and NFI sector received $1.1bn last year.
This forecast is based on our 95% probability range. In other words, we are 95% sure that funding will be in this range. Below are the other forecast ranges for the Emergency Shelter and NFI sector. As we become less sure about our forecast, the range narrows. So for example, we think there’s a 50% probability that funding will be between $1.0bn and $1.4bn.
But we need to put this into context. What does the forecast mean in terms of reaching the funding that is required for the sector (also known as the funding requirement)? The total funding requirement globally is determined by how much is needed in each context. If you hover over the donut below you’ll be able to see the chances of reaching 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of the funding that is required.
We think that it’s highly likely that the Emergency Shelter and NFI sector will reach 25% of the funding required in 2025, but only a remote chance of reaching 50%.
How does the 2025 forecast compare to previous years?
Our forecast is that the Emergency Shelter and NFI will receive between 21% and 54% of the funding requirement. But our central estimate is that there will be $1.2bn of funding for the sector.
This would be roughly in line with what the sector received last year ($1.1bn). This would be a decline from the 2023 peak of $1.6bn, but far beyond the levels at the start of the decade (around $0.4bn to $0.5bn).
This increase over the medium- and long-term reflects the increase in how much funding the sector needs has also grown. $3.6bn is needed in 2025, compared to only $1.8bn in 2020.
And despite the broad uplift in both funding needed and funding received in recent years, the funding gap has reverted to historical precedent. Last year, the sector only received 28% of what it asked for.
In this story, we’ve defined a real humanitarian recession as two consecutive years of a growing funding gap. Currently, the Emergency Shelter and NFI sector has experienced one year of a growing funding gapSo what are the odds of the sector that the sector will continue on this trajectory?
We think that it’s likely that the sector will experience real growth (closing the funding gap) in 2025, whilst it’s unlikely that the sector will experience real negative growth (a growing funding gap).
How does the 2025 forecast compare to other sectors?
Compared to other sectors, we think that the Emergency Shelter and NFI will rank at 5th of 17 sectors. The central estimate is $1.2bn, just ahead of Protection in 6th place.
Methodology
The usual health warning: FTS doesn’t capture everything. It is a platform that relies on voluntary reporting by organisations. But it is the most comprehensive source of data for humanitarian funding.
For forecast methodology, click here. We’ll be keeping a record of all our forecasts and success over time, which you can find here.
To find out methodology and sources for other things on this page which aren’t the forecast, click here.