For more details on Methodology click here. For more details on terminology click here.
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Last Updated 9th February 2025.
Note: The funding requirement listed below is currently a projected funding requirement which is subject to change.
How much funding is the Health Sector forecast to receive in 2025?
Funding to the Health sector is forecast to be between $1.3bn and $3.4bn in 2025. Our central estimate is $2.1bn. For reference, $2.0bn was received in 2025.
This forecast is based on our 95% probability range. In other words, we are 95% sure that funding will be between $1.3bn and $3.4bn. Below are the other forecast ranges for the Health sector. As we become less sure about our forecast, the range narrows. So for example, we think there’s a 50% probability that funding will be between $1.8bn and $2.5bn.
But we need to put this into context. What does the forecast mean in terms of reaching the funding that is required for the sector (also known as the funding requirement)? The total funding requirement globally is determined by how much is needed in each context. If you hover over the donut below you’ll be able to see the chances of reaching 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of the funding that is required.
We think that it is almost certain that Health will reach 25% of the requirement in 2025, and a realistic possibility of reaching the next milestone of 50%.
How does the 2025 forecast compare to previous years?
Health is the one of the largest humanitarian sectors in terms of the funding that is needed, and the funding received. The big story of the last few years is that there has been a gradual trend in the funding that was needed, followed by an extraordinary increase in the year of the start of COVID, 2020. The funding needed for Health nearly doubled from $2.3bn in 2019, to $4.4bn in 2020. That’s an increase of 85% in a single year, undoubtedly driven by the largest global health crisis of recent years.
Since 2020, there has been a ‘new normal’ for the funding requirement. The funding requirement has consistently been above $4bn (barring 2021 when it was ever so slightly below this mark). And funding has also increased significantly. Health posted two $2bn+ years in 2022 and 2023, and still received $1.97bn in 2024.
The funding gap increased in 2023 and 2024, and so the sector sits in a real humanitarian recession. We’ve come up with a way of defining what a ‘real humanitarian recession’ is, and we’ve defined it in this story as two consecutive years of a growing funding gap. So what is expected to happen in 2025?
We think that there’s a it’s highly likely that the sector will close its funding gap this year, and thus experience ‘real growth’ and come out of recession.
How does the 2025 forecast compare to other sectors?
Health is forecast to rank 2nd of all sectors in 2025. Whilst this is significantly behind Food Security, this is in a similar range to Nutrition and WASH as a $1bn+ sector.
Methodology
The usual health warning: FTS doesn’t capture everything. It is a platform that relies on voluntary reporting by organisations. But it is the most comprehensive source of data for humanitarian funding.
For forecast methodology, click here. We’ll be keeping a record of all our forecasts and success over time, which you can find here.
To find out methodology and sources for other things on this page which aren’t the forecast, click here.